Chelsea vs Newcastle United
Gameweek 30 — Saturday 14 Mar 2026, 17:30
Chelsea
Home
vs
17:30
NS
Newcastle United
Away
Pre-Match Analysis
Poisson Lambdas
Home (λ)
1.65
Away (λ)
0.85
xG Average (Last 5)
Home
0.00
Away
0.00
Goals Average
Home
Scored
1.64
Conceded
1.14
Away
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.36
Form (Last 5)
Home
W
L
D
D
W
Away
W
L
L
W
L
Strength Ratings
Home
Attack
1.22
Defence
0.85
Away
Attack
0.74
Defence
1.01
H2H & Rates
BTTS Rate
0%
O2.5 Rate
0%
H2H Home W
0%
Home CS Rate
3,571%
Away CS Rate
2,857%
Pre-Match Odds
Home
1.79
Draw
4.13
Away
3.90
BTTS Y
1.47
BTTS N
2.56
O2.5
1.50
U2.5
2.62
Tips
BTTS
no
@ 2.56
Confidence
95.0%
True Prob
5,377.0%
Implied Prob
3,906.0%
Edge
+1,471.0%
Key Factors
λ Home: 1.6515 | λ Away: 0.8466
Model probability: 53.8%
Bookmaker implied: 39.1%
Edge: +14.7%
Pending
UNDER25
under
@ 2.62
Confidence
95.0%
True Prob
5,443.0%
Implied Prob
3,817.0%
Edge
+1,626.0%
Key Factors
λ Home: 1.6515 | λ Away: 0.8466
Model probability: 54.4%
Bookmaker implied: 38.2%
Edge: +16.3%
Pending