Burnley vs AFC Bournemouth
Gameweek 30 — Saturday 14 Mar 2026, 15:00
Burnley
Home
vs
15:00
NS
AFC Bournemouth
Away
Pre-Match Analysis
Poisson Lambdas
Home (λ)
1.76
Away (λ)
2.00
xG Average (Last 5)
Home
0.00
Away
0.00
Goals Average
Home
Scored
1.07
Conceded
1.64
Away
Scored
1.64
Conceded
2.21
Form (Last 5)
Home
L
L
D
W
L
Away
D
D
D
W
D
Strength Ratings
Home
Attack
0.79
Defence
1.22
Away
Attack
1.22
Defence
1.64
H2H & Rates
BTTS Rate
0%
O2.5 Rate
0%
H2H Home W
0%
Home CS Rate
2,143%
Away CS Rate
2,143%
Pre-Match Odds
Home
3.97
Draw
3.79
Away
1.85
BTTS Y
1.64
BTTS N
2.19
O2.5
1.72
U2.5
2.10
Tips
1X2
home
@ 3.97
Confidence
91.0%
True Prob
3,434.0%
Implied Prob
2,519.0%
Edge
+915.0%
Key Factors
λ Home: 1.7574 | λ Away: 1.9992
Model probability: 34.3%
Bookmaker implied: 25.2%
Edge: +9.2%
Pending
BTTS
yes
@ 1.64
Confidence
94.0%
True Prob
7,097.0%
Implied Prob
6,098.0%
Edge
+1,000.0%
Key Factors
λ Home: 1.7574 | λ Away: 1.9992
Model probability: 71%
Bookmaker implied: 61%
Edge: +10%
Pending
OVER25
over
@ 1.72
Confidence
95.0%
True Prob
7,173.0%
Implied Prob
5,814.0%
Edge
+1,359.0%
Key Factors
λ Home: 1.7574 | λ Away: 1.9992
Model probability: 71.7%
Bookmaker implied: 58.1%
Edge: +13.6%
Pending